Inter-State Heterogeneity of The Burden of Novel Coronavirus Disease In India: An Analysis of the Correlating Factors

Sanjay Kumar Thakur¹ , Anil Kumar Sinha² , Rupinder Kalra³ , Garima Singh⁴ , Aarzoo Jahan⁵ , Namrata Sarin⁶ , Sompal Singh⁷

Section:Research Paper, Product Type: Journal-Paper
Vol.8 , Issue.3 , pp.46-51, Jun-2021

Online published on Jun 30, 2021

Copyright © Sanjay Kumar Thakur, Anil Kumar Sinha, Rupinder Kalra, Garima Singh, Aarzoo Jahan, Namrata Sarin, Sompal Singh . This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
 

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Abstract :
The number of cases of novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) in India has been increasing since March 2020. However, a significant inter-state heterogeneity is evident. The present study was aimed at analysing the various factors that could correlate with this heterogeneity. This analytical cross-sectional study included the COVID-19 related data of various Indian states as on 14th Oct 2020. Data of the demographic factors and other infectious diseases were extracted from various websites. Correlation between these factors and COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths was assessed (Pearson’s correlation coefficient). After a check for multi-collinearity, a stepwise linear regression analysis using R software was done for the final model of confirmed cases as well as deaths due to COVID-19. Pearson’s correlation coefficient showed a significant correlation between COVID-19 cases and deaths due to dengue while COVID-19 deaths demonstrated correlation with number of chikungunya cases and deaths due to dengue. The linear regression analysis gave the final model explaining COVID-19 deaths with total population, population density, other infectious diseases, average minimum temperature, and population above 60 years. The present study highlights a possible association between COVID-19 epidemiology and population density as well as with other infections like chikungunya, dengue, and malaria in India. Number of COVID-19 deaths are also related to population above 60 years. Knowledge of these related factors will help in prediction of health care need of states and better management of pandemic.

Key-Words / Index Term :
Novel corona virus, multiple linear regression, statistical model, heterogeneity, India

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