Evaluation of Climate Change by Using LARS-WG5 Model in the Selection Watershed of North Iran

Abbas Gholami¹

Section:Research Paper, Product Type: Journal-Paper
Vol.6 , Issue.5 , pp.87-96, May-2020

Online published on May 31, 2020

Copyright © Abbas Gholami . This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
 

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Abstract :
In order to achievement of this research objectives , used the LARS-WG5 model weather-based generation models, a series of scenarios related to the IPCC (United Nations Climate Change Commision).The research area was the Talar watershead of Mazandaran Province in North of Iran. Based on the selected base period and the mean monthly rainfall and temperature of the base period ,the monthly rainfall and monthly temperature Was carried out by the latest model LARS-WG5 for the three different series used in the research for future simulations. Also, in order to better study, the minimum and maximum temperatures for future periods were calculated by the model with the base period. According of the results, it is revealed in different months of the year there was many differences between observed monthly rainfall and simulation by this model.The monthly average rainfall trend is that from 1 January to the end of the May.The average monthly precipitation increases in future periods compared to the base period. In June, the decline, rising in July and Augus and decrease in September. Also in October, November and December, we will see a dramatic increase in the amount of precipitation coming in the future.On the other hand, the months of May and October have the most rainfall changes in the coming periods.The consequences of these changes may be affected in seasonal flood events in the study area.Current and future temperatures shows the highest temperature variation in June, August and February that indicating the hot months of the year are warmer and even in February in the future. Comparison of average maximum and minimum temperatures during the base period and simulated by the HADCM3 Talar basin model hot ,warmer and confirm subject.

Key-Words / Index Term :
Climate change, Variation of Precipitation, Temperature condition , LARS-WG model, Talar watershed

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