Using R-studio to examine the COVID-19 Patients in Pakistan Implementation of SIR Model on Cases

Nida Hussain¹ , Baoming Li²

Section:Research Paper, Product Type: Journal-Paper
Vol.6 , Issue.8 , pp.54-59, Aug-2020

Online published on Aug 31, 2020

Copyright © Nida Hussain, Baoming Li . This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
 

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Abstract :
This research is based on analysing the spread of COVID-19 in Pakistan. The exponential spread of virus fluctuates in Pakistan due to the implementation of smart lockdown. During smart lockdown implementing and utilizing Susceptible, Infectious and Removal (SIR) Model can help to analyse the growth rate or reproductive growth of virus (COVID-19). The value of Beta and Gamma obtained from SIR Model can help to predict the exponential growth of the virus. After running the SIR Model, the value of beta assumed as 0.41 and value of gamma value as 0.19 with R0=2.16. The value of beta and gamma is changing every day, with R0 changes from 2.1 to 2.4, which still mean there is (rapid) exponential growth in COVID-19 cases. However, result predicts there will be a peak hit of infectious cases after August 25, 2020. Moreover, 67% of the total population will be infected

Key-Words / Index Term :
Compartmental Model, Epidemiological Model, COVID-19, SIR Model, Coronavirus

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