Forecasting Chili Prices Using TBATS

M. Fajar¹ , S. Nonalisa²

Section:Research Paper, Product Type: Journal-Paper
Vol.7 , Issue.2 , pp.1-5, Feb-2021

Online published on Feb 28, 2021

Copyright © M. Fajar, S. Nonalisa . This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
 

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Abstract :
The purpose of this study is to forecast the daily price of chili to provide information for monitoring and controlling inflation. The data used are the daily prices data of red curly chili, big red chili, red cayenne small chili, and green cayenne small chili at Pasar Induk Kramatjati, sourced from https://infopangan.jakarta.go.id/. The method used is the TBATS (Trigonometric, Box-Cox Transformation, ARMA error, Trend, and Seasonal). This method accommodates seasonal components with periodic integers and non-integers, both dual and single or semi-seasonal. The results of this study, it can conclude that the performance of TBATS forecasting using chili price data training is very good. The performance of TBATS in forecasting the price of chili has decreased along with the forecast period longer. The results of the price range of each type of chili for the next 30 days at the Pasar Induk Kramatjati as follows: The price range of red curly chili: IDR. 10,146.89 – IDR. 10,802.12 per kg (with the condition of prices decreasing every day), big red chili price range: IDR. 13,046.63 - IDR. 14,706.46 per kg (with the term of prices increasing every day), red cayenne small chili price range: IDR. 20,101.65 - IDR. 20,767.42 per kg (with conditions price more increased every day in the first 25 days and decreasing in the remaining five days), and green cayenne small chili price range: IDR. 11,277.96 - IDR. 12,697.13 per kg (with the condition that prices are increasing every day).

Key-Words / Index Term :
Forecasting, TBATS, Price, Chili

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