The importance of using artificial intelligence models in economic forecasting during a crisis period (Using the NARX model to predict demand for hospital health services)

Bassel Anwar Asaad¹

Section:Research Paper, Product Type: Journal-Paper
Vol.8 , Issue.3 , pp.38-47, Sep-2020

Online published on Sep 30, 2020

Copyright © Bassel Anwar Asaad . This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
 

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Abstract :
Modern technical models are among the important models that must be relied upon in economic sciences, which are related to mathematical sciences and technology, The most important of these models and methods are models of economic intelligence, artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic. The study aimed to use an advanced scientific model to Forecast the demand for health services provided in hospitals in Lattakia Governorate, which is the NARX model, which is a model of artificial neural networks. In addition to how to enter data, perform analysis and forecast, and how to obtain results in the said form. The study showed the accuracy of the prediction using the artificial neural networks model. Where the results of the prediction of the values reached a trustworthiness and confidence that exceeded 98% using the artificial neural networks model. The study reached a set of results, the most important of which are: Increased reliability of prediction for government health demand in hospitals in Lattakia governorate using the neural networks model NARX compared to traditional models used to predict the demand for health services provided in hospitals.

Key-Words / Index Term :
health services, Demand, Crisis, Models, artificial neural networks, forecast

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