Survival Modeling and Analysis for Time to Failures of Aircraft Glass

J. Vijay Anto¹ , Lilly George²

Section:Research Paper, Product Type: Isroset-Journal
Vol.6 , Issue.2 , pp.252-257, Apr-2019

CrossRef-DOI:   https://doi.org/10.26438/ijsrmss/v6i2.252257

Online published on Apr 30, 2019

Copyright © J. Vijay Anto, Lilly George . This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
 

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Abstract :
Assuring the reliability of components of an aircraft is very essential, as even a minor problem in the aircraft leads to major risk to the passengers. In this study, the lifetime of aircraft glass is assessed through survival modeling. The aircraft glass failure data has been taken from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and it is assumed to follow the lifetime distributions. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistic clearly reveals that the empirical data is fitted with the following theoretical distributions: gamma, Weibull and lognormal. The Maximum Likelihood Estimation method is used to estimate the parameters of the theoretical distributions. With the assistance of AIC and BIC statistics, the best model has been chosen among the three distributions. Lognormal distributed empirical data has the lowest AIC and BIC statistic compared with Weibull model and gamma model. Therefore, time to failure of the aircraft glass data best fitted with the lognormal survival model. Once the best model had been identified, the reliability measures like cumulative hazard rate, reliability function and mean time to failure are estimated in the paper. The hazard rate of aircraft glass is maximum during the period of 18.83-23.83 months. The aircraft glass has a decreasing failure rate (DFR) over time. The expected lifetime of aircraft glass is 31 months based on MTTF. The total amount of risk to aircraft glass failure until 48.83 months is 65 percent.

Key-Words / Index Term :
Lifetime distributions, KS test, AIC, BIC, cumulative hazard rate, reliability function, MTTF

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