Estimating the Epidemic Size of COVID-19 in SAARC Countries Using Classical SIR Model

Riaz Mahmud¹ , Sofi Mahmud Parvez²

Section:Research Paper, Product Type: Journal-Paper
Vol.7 , Issue.4 , pp.20-25, Aug-2020

Online published on Aug 31, 2020

Copyright © Riaz Mahmud, Sofi Mahmud Parvez . This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
 

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Abstract :
The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease that evolved from Wuhan, China. It is now expanded in almost all over the world and became pandemic by the time. In this study, we have used the classical SIR (Susceptible, Infected, and Recover) model to estimate dynamics of the infection of COVID-19 in eight different countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Nepal, the Maldives, Sri-Lanka, and Bhutan) of South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC). The maximum and minimum basic reproduction number R0 (2.71 and 1.10) of coronavirus among the SAARC countries are estimated for Bhutan and Pakistan, respectively. In this article, we tried to estimate the epidemic infection size for each SAARC country and compare them using the SIR model`s statistical parameters. The estimation may not be valid if the significant variation of data occurs in the coming days

Key-Words / Index Term :
COVID-19, Pandemic, Classical SIR model, SAARC

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