Stochastic Application of Gumbel Distribution in Flood Frequency Analysis of Lingadzi River

S.M. Chikabvumbwa¹ , C.C. Banda² , D.A. Worku³ , A. Kone⁴

Section:Research Paper, Product Type: Journal-Paper
Vol.7 , Issue.5 , pp.19-23, Oct-2020

Online published on Oct 31, 2020

Copyright © S.M. Chikabvumbwa, C.C. Banda, D.A. Worku, A. Kone . This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
 

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Abstract :
The study of flood frequency analysis is important as it guides hydraulic engineers and policy makers to design flood control structures, and prepare flood risk management plans. This paper discussed how Gumbel statistical distribution can be applied in analyzing peak floods in Lingadzi River Basin. Annual peak flood data for 37 years (1970–2006) for Lingadzi River was analyzed using Excel and Hydrognomon software applications. Practically, peak flows at return periods of 2,5,10,20,25,50,100 and 500 years were determined for Lingadzi river. Statistical results at 95% confidence interval indicated the appropriateness of Gumbel’s distribution in predicting maximum floods. The estimated maximum floods obtained at the stated return periods above are: 169.69, 296.77, 380.9, 487.2, 566.01, 644.35 and 825.24 m3/s respectively. These values are useful for designing flood control structures such as bridges, reservoirs and culverts in the Lingadzi River basin. These results can be used to establish and advance reliable flood risk management models for river basins. This study further recommends that flood analysis studies should be intensified in the country so as to develop and explore recommendable models, strategies and procedures for flood control based on the type of flood in different watersheds as the effects of climate change are predicted to increase in the near future.

Key-Words / Index Term :
Probability distributions, Lingadzi River basin, Hydrognomon, Urban floods, Return period

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