Red Chili Price Forecasting in Indonesia Based on Data from The Strategic Food Price Information Center using the Neural Network

¹ , rea Tri Rian Dani² , Fachrian Bimantoro Putra³ , Qonita Qurrota A’yun⁴

Section:Research Paper, Product Type: Journal-Paper
Vol.10 , Issue.3 , pp.14-20, Jun-2023

Online published on Jun 30, 2023

Copyright © ,rea Tri Rian Dani, Fachrian Bimantoro Putra, Qonita Qurrota A’yun . This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
 

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Abstract :
This study uses the Neural Network (NN) method which is applied to red chili price data in Indonesia. The NN method has the advantage of modeling fluctuations in red chili price data. The purpose of this study is to obtain the best forecasting results and forecasting accuracy values in predicting red chili price data. The data used starts from January 2018 to April 2023 which is divided into training and testing data with a proportion of 95:5. The results of this study show that the best NN is NN with the backpropagation algorithm using 2 input variables, 9 neurons in 1 hidden layer with an RMSE value of 2555,593 and a MAPE of 4,531 on the training data. In data testing, the MAPE value is <20 so that the prediction results are still quite accurate

Key-Words / Index Term :
Neural Network, Red Chili, Backpropagation Algorithm, MAPE, RMSE, Prediction

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